Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Characterization of Shewanella oneidensis MtrC: a cell-surface decaheme cytochrome involved in respiratory electron transport to extracellular electron acceptors

MtrC is a decaheme c-type cytochrome associated with the outer cell membrane of Fe(III)-respiring species of the Shewanella genus. It is proposed to play a role in anaerobic respiration by mediating electron transfer to extracellular mineral oxides that can serve as terminal electron acceptors. The present work presents the first spectropotentiometric and voltammetric characterization of MtrC, using protein purified from Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. Potentiometric titrations, monitored by UV–vis absorption and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, reveal that the hemes within MtrC titrate over a broad potential range spanning between approximately +100 and approximately -500 mV (vs. the standard hydrogen electrode). Across this potential window the UV–vis absorption spectra are characteristic of low-spin c-type hemes and the EPR spectra reveal broad, complex features that suggest the presence of magnetically spin-coupled low-spin c-hemes. Non-catalytic protein film voltammetry of MtrC demonstrates reversible electrochemistry over a potential window similar to that disclosed spectroscopically. The voltammetry also allows definition of kinetic properties of MtrC in direct electron exchange with a solid electrode surface and during reduction of a model Fe(III) substrate. Taken together, the data provide quantitative information on the potential domain in which MtrC can operate

The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia

Strategic Planning for Local Tourism Destinations: An Analysis of Tourism

This paper reports on a study of the planning practices of local tourism destinations. The tourism plans of 30 local tourism destinations in Queensland, Australia were analyzed to determine the extent to which sustainability principles, namely strategic planning and stakeholder participation, were integrated into the planning process. Utilizing a tourism planning process evaluation instrument developed by Simpson (2001), it was found that local tourism destinations are not integrating sustainability principles in their planning processes

A dispositional approach to psychological climate: relationships between interpersonal harmony motives and psychological climate for communication safety

This study examined the dispositional antecedents of a climate at the individual level, psychological climate for communication safety. The impact of two interpersonal harmony motives, harmony enhancement and disintegration avoidance, on psychological climate for communication safety, innovative performance and the moderated mediated processes associated with job autonomy were examined in a survey study in China. Results showed that harmony enhancement was positively related to innovative performance through psychological climate for communication safety. Moreover, job autonomy moderated the relationship between harmony motives and psychological climate for communication safety. Harmony enhancement was more strongly associated with psychological climate for communication safety when job autonomy was low. The relationship between disintegration avoidance and psychological climate for communication safety was positive when job autonomy was high, but negative when job autonomy was low. Conditional indirect effects consistent with these interaction effects were also found

Cardiosphere-derived cells suppress allogeneic lymphocytes by production of PGE2 acting via the EP4 receptor

derived cells (CDCs) are a cardiac progenitor cell population, which have been shown to possess cardiac regenerative properties and can improve heart function in a variety of cardiac diseases. Studies in large animal models have predominantly focussed on using autologous cells for safety, however allogeneic cell banks would allow for a practical, cost-effective and efficient use in a clinical setting. The aim of this work was to determine the immunomodulatory status of these cells using CDCs and lymphocytes from 5 dogs. CDCs expressed MHC I but not MHC II molecules and in mixed lymphocyte reactions demonstrated a lack of lymphocyte proliferation in response to MHC-mismatched CDCs. Furthermore, MHC-mismatched CDCs suppressed lymphocyte proliferation and activation in response to Concanavalin A. Transwell experiments demonstrated that this was predominantly due to direct cell-cell contact in addition to soluble mediators whereby CDCs produced high levels of PGE2 under inflammatory conditions. This led to down-regulation of CD25 expression on lymphocytes via the EP4 receptor. Blocking prostaglandin synthesis restored both, proliferation and activation (measured via CD25 expression) of stimulated lymphocytes. We demonstrated for the first time in a large animal model that CDCs inhibit proliferation in allo-reactive lymphocytes and have potent immunosuppressive activity mediated via PGE2

Resuscitation Endpoints in Trauma

Fluid and blood resuscitation is the mainstay of therapy for the treatment of hemorrhagic shock, whether due to trauma or other etiology. Cessation of hemorrhage with rapid hemostatic techniques is the first priority in the treatment of traumatic hemorrhagic shock, with concomitant fluid resuscitation with blood and crystalloids to maintain perfusion and organ function. “Hypotensive” or “low-volume” resuscitation has become increasingly accepted in the prehospital resuscitation phase of trauma, prior to definitive hemorrhage control, since aggressive fluid resuscitation may increase bleeding. Resuscitation after hemorrhage control is focused on restoration of tissue oxygenation. Efforts to optimize resuscitation have used “resuscitation endpoints” as markers of adequacy of resuscitation. The resuscitation endpoints that have been evaluated include both global (restoration of blood pressure, heart rate and urine output, lactate, base deficit, mixed venous oxygen saturation, ventricular end-diastolic volume) and regional (gastric tonometry, near-infrared spectroscopy for measurement of muscle tissue oxygen saturation) measures. This review critically evaluates the evidence regarding the use of resuscitation endpoints in trauma.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75386/1/j.1778-428X.2005.tb00127.x.pd

Synthesis and summary of patient-reported outcome measures to inform the development of a core outcome set in colorectal cancer surgery

AIM: Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures (PROMs) are standard measures in the assessment of colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment, but the range and complexity of available PROMs may be hindering the synthesis of evidence. This systematic review aimed to: (i) summarize PROMs in studies of CRC surgery and (ii) categorize PRO content to inform the future development of an agreed minimum 'core' outcome set to be measured in all trials. METHOD: All PROMs were identified from a systematic review of prospective CRC surgical studies. The type and frequency of PROMs in each study were summarized, and the number of items documented. All items were extracted and independently categorized by content by two researchers into 'health domains', and discrepancies were discussed with a patient and expert. Domain popularity and the distribution of items were summarized. RESULTS: Fifty-eight different PROMs were identified from the 104 included studies. There were 23 generic, four cancer-specific, 11 disease-specific and 16 symptom-specific questionnaires, and three ad hoc measures. The most frequently used PROM was the EORTC QLQ-C30 (50 studies), and most PROMs (n = 40, 69%) were used in only one study. Detailed examination of the 50 available measures identified 917 items, which were categorized into 51 domains. The domains comprising the most items were 'anxiety' (n = 85, 9.2%), 'fatigue' (n = 67, 7.3%) and 'physical function' (n = 63, 6.9%). No domains were included in all PROMs. CONCLUSION: There is major heterogeneity of PRO measurement and a wide variation in content assessed in the PROMs available for CRC. A core outcome set will improve PRO outcome measurement and reporting in CRC trials

'Getting people on board': Discursive leadership for consensus building in team meetings

Meetings are increasingly seen as sites where organizing and strategic change take place, but the role of specific discursive strategies and related linguistic-pragmatic and argumentative devices, employed by meeting chairs, is little understood. The purpose of this article is to address the range of behaviours of chairs in business organizations by comparing strategies employed by the same chief executive officer (CEO) in two key meeting genres: regular management team meetings and ‘away-days’. While drawing on research from organization studies on the role of leadership in meetings and studies of language in the workplace from (socio)linguistics and discourse studies, we abductively identified five salient discursive strategies which meeting chairs employ in driving decision making: (1) Bonding; (2) Encouraging; (3) Directing; (4) Modulating; and (5) Re/Committing. We investigate the leadership styles of the CEO in both meeting genres via a multi-level approach using empirical data drawn from meetings of a single management team in a multinational defence corporation. Our key findings are, first, that the chair of the meetings (and leading manager) influences the outcome of the meetings in both negative and positive ways, through the choice of discursive strategies. Second, it becomes apparent that the specific context and related meeting genre mediate participation and the ability of the chair to control interactions within the team. Third, a more hierarchical authoritarian or a more interpersonal egalitarian leadership style can be identified via specific combinations of these five discursive strategies. The article concludes that the egalitarian leadership style increases the likelihood of achieving a durable consensus. Several related avenues for research are outlined